According to Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity, the AI transaction may have already ended. For this round of bull market to continue to maintain its upward trend, there are still many things that need to be accomplished and realized. Nevertheless, this trend is still possible to continue, although the stock market will have to rely more on its own strength to sustain it.
"The 'bubble' seems to be heading towards its logical end: the massive financings for companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies cannot continue indefinitely. As Anthropic gets closer to IPO, some existing investors may finally be able to reap their rewards. Anthropic announced on November 10th the launch of a IPO roadshow, during which current shareholders will sell part of their holdings along with newly issued shares."
Charts of the equal-weight S&P 500 index show that the market environment is relatively healthy, but as Timmer says, "In a market that is top-heavy, this may not be enough" to continue driving the index higher.
What will happen to Bitcoin?
On the other hand, cryptocurrencies may benefit from the market's transition period, although this is by no means certain, as both risk appetite and available funds seem to be on the decline.
The main obstacles between revolving funds and Bitcoin, as usual, are volatility and the security of the cryptocurrency market. The digital asset industry is no longer what it was before the AI era. New risks have emerged: cybersecurity concerns, worries about Bitcoin's resistance to quantum computing, and many other factors that may deter new investors.
If a transition really occurs, Bitcoin will be the asset that benefits the most.
Only when we see specific signs of a bull market in Bitcoin and larger-cap altcoins can the market recovery be confirmed: higher highs, as well as a continuous inflow of funds into institutional products such as ETF. Until all these conditions are met, the likelihood of AI trading coming to an end and funds quickly shifting to cryptocurrencies still seems very low.
