Goldman Sachs' latest economic outlook for 2027 predicts that next year the global GDP will grow by 2.8%, with the U.S. economy growing by 2.4% and the UK economy growing by 1.4%. Although investments in artificial intelligence ( AI ) continue to support the U.S. economy, rising energy prices, high financing costs, and tightening monetary policies remain the main risks facing global economic growth.
Research indicates that the key to global economic growth in 2027 lies in whether AI investment and improvements in productivity can offset the negative impacts of high interest rates and energy costs. The bank previously forecasted that global economic growth in 2027 would be roughly on par with that of 2026, but the overall risk is tilted downward.
AI Investment Remains the Main Driver of U.S. Economic Growth
A study released by Goldman Sachs on November 11 predicted that AI investment will continue to be the main driver of growth in U.S. corporate capital expenditure in 2027, driving an increase in actual corporate fixed investment of 8%, significantly higher than the market consensus forecast of 4.2%.
It is estimated that by the end of 2026, the annualized scale of investment in related hardware and intellectual property rights in the US AI sector will exceed $900 billion, and by the end of 2027, it will further rise to $1.4 trillion, which is nearly 4% of the US GDP sector.
According to the estimation that includes semiconductor investments, AI related expenditures are expected to contribute 5.3 percentage points to the growth rate of actual capital expenditure in the United States in 2027, and to drive an increase of about 0.6 percentage points in GDP.
However, due to the heavy reliance on imported information processing equipment and the underrepresentation of semiconductor investments in official statistics, there is a discrepancy between the actual contribution of AI expenditures to economic growth and the official statistical figures. Excluding semiconductor investments, Goldman Sachs estimates that AI investments contribute 4.3 percentage points to the growth rate of capital expenditure and only 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth.
High interest rates and energy costs constitute the main risks.
Although Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy to continue to grow next year, persistent inflationary pressures mean that monetary policy may remain tight for an extended period.
Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for Federal Reserve interest rates this week, anticipating that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in December of this year and again by 25 basis points in March 2027. At the same time, the bank has postponed the first rate cut from September 2027 to December, with further rate cuts expected to follow in 2028.
Goldman Sachs believes that energy costs and corporate financing pressures may still suppress economic activity. Its previous research estimated that if bond yields in developed economies continue to rise by 100 basis points, the impact on housing, durable consumer goods spending, and corporate investment could collectively drag down economic growth by about 0.6 percentage points.
In addition, there is also a risk that the boosting effect of the AI investment boom may weaken. Once the growth rate of related capital expenditures slows down, or if a correction in tech stocks diminishes the wealth effect for residents, U.S. economic growth could be further affected.
Overall, Goldman Sachs' forecast for the global economy in 2027 still assumes growth as the baseline scenario. However, whether U.S. AI investment can continue to expand, and when inflation and interest rates will decline, will be important variables affecting economic performance.
