The crisis in the data center construction under Oracle continues to spread. Following the declaration of force majeure for the Jupiter project in New Mexico, the 1.3GW super-large data center “Project Lighthouse” located in Wisconsin is once again in trouble—not due to site selection or funding issues, but because it cannot get connected to electricity.

According to the latest report released by the data center research institution Aterio, the transmission approval process for the Lighthouse project has been sent back for revision by the Wisconsin Public Service Commission (PSC), and the legal review clock has been reset to zero. This means that Oracle's previous commitment to "deliver to customers in the second half of 2027" is very likely not to be met. Under a baseline scenario, full-power supply will be postponed until October 2028, and in a pessimistic scenario, it will be further delayed until spring 2029. Affected by this news, Oracle's stock price fell by 1.8% on the same day, and the company has not made any public response.

This is the second project among Oracle's five core data center campuses to be explicitly marked as having a risk of delay. Just two weeks ago, Barclays' credit strategist Andrew Keches still assured clients that the issues in New Mexico "would have no spillover effect on other projects"—but reality is gradually disproving this assessment.

Approval for restart: Over 500 documents, starting from scratch

The project is located in Port Washington of Wisconsin, developed by Vantage Data Centers. Oracle serves as the tenant, and it is part of the OpenAI Stargate construction plan. The total power demand reaches 1.3GW, with the key IT load being approximately 902MW.

The power bottleneck of the project lies in the fact that the power supply to the park depends on a new high-voltage transmission line built by an American transmission company ( ATC ), and ATC must obtain approval from PSC before it can commence construction.

The program has now progressed to a critical stage. The application for ATC was recognized as "complete" in December 2025, but thereafter, the company submitted an additional 564 documents, including new line plans and temporary bypass routes. On August 7th of this year, the committee responsible for PSC unanimously revoked the previous "completeness recognition"—reportedly, this is the first time such a thing has happened in the committee's history over the past few decades, and it may even be the first time in its entire existence.

PSC The chairperson stated, "Summer Strand, the scale and quantity of the applications for changes... have created obstacles to the participation of all parties and the public." Committee member Marcus Hawkins put it more directly: "We have a strict timeline, but the prerequisite is that the applications must be complete."

Subsequently, the administrative law judge determined that ATC failed to comply with the order regarding the listed changes, and PSC closed the case on September 10 without making a ruling on the substantive content. ATC resubmitted the application on September 18, and the statutory review clock was reset to zero.

ATC Initially planned to begin construction in December 2026 and be completed by the end of 2027, in line with Oracle's delivery schedule. This plan has now officially fallen through.

Timeline: The earliest could be 2028, but it's more likely to be 2029.

According to Wisconsin law, PSC must make a ruling on the completeness of the application within 30 days (the next deadline is October 19th), followed by a decision on the merits within 180 days, with the possibility of an additional 180-day extension. After that, construction can only begin after six months' prior notice.

Aterio Based on this, three scenarios are deduced:

• Optimal scenario (less likely): Partial power supply to be achieved in October 2027, and full capacity of 1.3GW to be achieved in August 2028;
• Baseline scenario: Partial power supply to be achieved in December 2027, full power supply in October 2028, with effective load ramp-up starting from the first quarter of 2028;
• Extension scenario: Partial power supply to be achieved in June 2028, and full power supply to be achieved in April 2029.

Aterio pointed out that, based on historical records, PSC initiated extended reviews in all similar large-scale power transmission cases it reviewed. The 345kV project actually took 355 to 358 days from the time of being deemed complete to the time a decision was made, rather than the theoretical 180 days. In other words, the extended scenario is the benchmark that has historical basis.

Aterio, the head of data center research, stated that "the construction of Port Washington is progressing steadily, but whether the power supply will be in place depends on a regulatory procedure that has already been restarted." Currently, two buildings in the park have completed their capping, but they do not have access to the power grid, meaning the chips inside will have nowhere to be plugged in.

Bill: Costs have soared by 75%, and the pressure of debt continues to accumulate.

In addition to the schedule, project costs have also inflated significantly. The revised cost estimate for the “Ozaukee County Power Distribution Interconnection Project” resubmitted by ATC has risen to between $2.48 billion and $2.72 billion, an increase of about 75% from the original request of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion, which may make it the most expensive single power transmission project in Wisconsin's history. Approximately $1.1 billion of this amount will be used for the Decker power grid stabilization system ( E-STATCOM ), and Oracle has committed to covering this portion of the cost.

Tom Content cited data from Citizens Utility Board indicates that the largest electricity consumer in Wisconsin currently uses less than 100 megawatts of power, while the peak electricity consumption in that park could be as high as 3500 megawatts.

The pressure at the financing level cannot be ignored either. According to Barclays data, the construction funds for the Wisconsin campus come from $15 billion of a $38 billion loan package designated as Vantage. It is reported that this loan package has faced difficulties in syndication sales. In addition, since Wisconsin has tariff requirements that major electricity consumers must have a credit rating of no less than A-, and Oracle's current rating is BBB -, the company will face the pressure of having to pay back any guarantees. Oracle has disclosed that the related letter of credit guarantee requirements could exceed $100 million per year, with the total guarantee amount reportedly exceeding $7 billion. All of these factors indicate that full-capacity power supply for the campus may not be achievable until 2029.

Goldman Sachs analyst Sean Johnstone warned in a research report the day after New Mexico's force majeure declaration that "permit approvals, redesign of power plans, community opposition, and local infrastructure constraints are threatening the construction timeline and financing assumptions." The situation in Wisconsin alone has already had a substantial impact due to just one of these factors.

The cost of delay: Nearly a billion dollars in monthly revenue is postponed.

Goldman Sachs' stock research estimates that ultra-large cloud service providers require approximately $11.6 billion in AI revenue per GW of computing power annually in order to achieve a 15% return on investment in AI computing power expenditures between 2026 and 2027. Calculated based on a IT capacity of about 0.9GW, each month of delay corresponds to a revenue deferral of around $850 million to $900 million. Bloom Energy stated during its second-quarter earnings conference call that for a 1GW data center, powering it up one month earlier can generate a revenue value of about $1 billion to $2 billion.

At the same time, the pressure of capital expenditure is not alleviated by the delay. Oracle's previous "must perform under all circumstances" lease agreement signed for the Jupiter project means that even if the park fails to go live, the company still has to bear the holding costs. Barclays pointed out that hardware capital expenditure is usually incurred 2 to 3 months before the assets go live; what is postponed is revenue, not cost. Oracle's capital expenditure guidance for FY27 is as high as up to $95 billion, far exceeding the $55.7 billion for FY26, further compressing the financial flexibility.

This dilemma is not unique to Oracle. According to Goldman Sachs' latest "Carbon Economics" report, the scale of new high-voltage transmission lines built in the United States has significantly shrunk from an average of 1,700 miles per year between 2010 and 2014 to 350 miles per year between 2020 and 2023, and the median time from application to commercial operation has approached 5 years. Engine manufacturer INNIO told Goldman Sachs that the grid connection cycle has extended from about 2 years in history to over 7 years today.

Port Washington is a true reflection of this statistical data: 1.3GW of electricity demand, waiting for the construction of new high-voltage lines and up to five new substations, as well as a regulatory agency that has already lost patience. This is also in line with Goldman Sachs' prediction that by 2030, 28% of the electricity demand for data centers in the United States will be met by off-grid natural gas and fuel cells – whereas in 2025, this proportion was “actually zero.”

Crisis Transmission: From "Isolated Events" to Systemic Concerns

Barclays Andrew Keches stated in a quick report after announcing force majeure on its New Mexico project: "The headlines are big, but the actual impact is minimal... There should be no contagion to other projects, and credit should not fluctuate as a result."

However, the fact is that the Oracle Credit Default Swap (CDS) soared to a record 237 basis points the following day, and the judgment of "no contagion" has become increasingly fragile with the exposure of the Wisconsin project.

It is worth noting that the reasons for the delays in each Oracle project vary: New Mexico is facing issues with pipeline and air permits, while Wisconsin is encountering obstacles in grid regulation approvals. As Aterio points out, when each project has its "own unique reason for delay," the logic of defending such isolations no longer holds water.

Barclays believes that the relatively safe Saline project in Michigan, which is said to have obtained power supply and licenses, "is one of the most risk-averse assets in the Oracle pipeline." The first phase of delivery is expected to be completed by the end of the year, which is less than three months from now. As the original text states, historical experience shows that it is often the asset that is considered the safest that will encounter problems next.

As Goldman Sachs' Johnstone states, "For lenders and data center investors, this is a reminder: third-party-developed AI infrastructure is not always as stable and reliable as it may seem." The logic behind the construction boom, which was supported by hundreds of billions of dollars in debt, was that the assets would be launched on time. However, in reality, they were not launched on time.