If interest rates remain unchanged, it is expected that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision will drive the price of Bitcoin towards $88,000.
BTC still has weak momentum, and the levels of $86,950 and $79,273 may determine its next direction.
Following recent corrections, the price of Bitcoin is rebounding and is approaching a key milestone as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The price has risen from a local low of around $79,500 to above $81,300, with $88,000 gradually becoming a potential upward target. As the market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged, attention is shifting to the Federal Reserve's policy prospects and their potential impact on the price of BTC.
The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision may trigger fluctuations.
The Federal Reserve plans to announce its interest rate decision in the next few hours, followed by a press conference. The current benchmark interest rate range is between 3.75% and 4%, and the market expects the Fed to maintain the rates unchanged. Interest rates also help to determine the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve, especially by observing the statements of the Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.
The following three possible scenarios may affect the price trend of BTC.
- If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged and at the same time the Fed chairman makes dovish remarks, it could trigger short covering, driving the price of BTC up to $88,000.
- The second possibility is that interest rates remain unchanged, but the remarks of the Federal Reserve Chairman are more hawkish; by then, the price of BTC is expected to fall below $80,000 and further drop to $75,000, which could lead to an increase in market panic.
- The third scenario is an unexpected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which could trigger a stronger risk-aversion reaction in financial markets, dragging prices below $70,000.
Bitcoin tested key support levels before the resolution.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $81,423, down from recent highs, indicating that neither buyers nor sellers have gained clear control of the market. The range between $80,600 and $81,800 is an important area that needs to be defended. If buyers are able to push prices above this range, it could create room for a rebound; however, if prices fall below this range, especially with the Federal Reserve sending hawkish signals, BTC may face further pressure.
RSI has been hovering around 48 after rebounding from a low of around 41, indicating that although the indicators have picked up, the momentum is still weak. On the other hand, MACD shows that selling pressure is declining and is moving towards a bullish crossover. Therefore, these indicators suggest that a price correction may occur, but it will only be confirmed when the price breaks through the local resistance range of $80,700 to $81,400.
Can Bitcoin break through $87,000 and head towards $88,000?
The main resistance level around $86,950 is a key area to watch, as it also represents the recent high on the chart. If Bitcoin can break through and hold this level, the next potential target could be $88,000. However, before such a scenario actually occurs, BTC still needs to accumulate more momentum. If buyers fail to push prices higher, Bitcoin may continue to trade sideways or retest support levels.
On the downside, $79,273 is an important level. If the daily close falls below this level, the price of BTC may face further pressure, and the range between $78,200 and $75,900 will become a focus of attention. This would also be in line with the bearish scenario outlined before the Federal Reserve's announcement.
Key levels to watch
- $88,000 – Potential upside target
- $86,950 – Major resistance level and recent high of the range
- $81,800 to $80,600 – the immediate trading range that may determine the next trend
- $79,273 – a key support level that requires attention
- $78,200 to $75,900 – potential downward range
- $67,900 – A Deeper Level of Downward Market Scenario
